THE IMPORTANCE/EFFECT OF AGE CHANGES by shotgun_mike
"With most eyes fixed on the challenge series last couple of days, and today's World Challenge Day races, not to mention
the expectations that comes with a sales ring dip for the new season, it was a very exciting time of the year
for all owners that had anything raceable in these races.
G2 WCD-horses can be found in even the cheapest of claimers and with Raceclubs being generous enough to
schedule such races over all 9 distances and both sexes tonight we can hopefully look forward to
full fields and several instances, with maybe a couple of winners hailing from small stables.
A lot of trainers ask about the importance of age chances, and I therefore I decided to write a couple of
words about this for new members.
An AC can result in drastic changes for your horse, especially amongst the G2's who experience a broader
percentage difference than G1's.
If you don't know what an age change is then read the following closely.
Every 2Y and 3Y turning 3Y or 4Y improves in training upon the so called age change.
Some horses are left unscaven, others improve while some go from hit to shit.
Amongst the G1's the basic idea is to get a 12,5 % gain, so if your horse peaks at, for instance 10.00 at
age 2 it will have "survived" the AC if it at age 3 hits 11.25.
If it hits higher than 11.25 then it might just have gotten a very good AC.
You can sometime read on the forums about trainers suggesting that their horses have gotten massive AC's of
anything between 14-20 % - when it fact no G1's will ever get an AC of 20 %, it just doesn't happen.
Why certain trainers still think that their horse have gotten a great AC is because they hadn't pushed it
to the limit before the age change - resulting in comparing a possible peak TT at age 3 (or 4) with one that
wasn't up to standard season before.
If you want to be sure about what kind of AC your horse has gotten you need to train it to the maximum every season.
Not only 1 or 2 cycles, but flip it say 5-10 times on ideal conditions and on high fitness.
Then do the same after the age change, if you do not you will end up guessing the age change and as such can
misinterpret the effect, which could lead to you ending up entering your horse into the wrong races.
Some horses, both G1's and G2's, do get bad AC's, which is easy to see amongst the challenge horses in the game as if you
own a direct clone of horse X you will get exactly the same age changes as this horse did, which could be very important
for you to know when buying or selling a 2Y.
When push comes to shove G1's in general most get decent age changes, with percentages seldom creeping under 11,5 or even 12,0.
Many owners do jump to hasty and unfounded conclusions about the effect of the AC after only a couple of TT's or 1 full cycle,
thinking that the AC in fact is catastrophical - but your horse could just as well have had some bad randoms (yes, there are
bad randoms in training also... very important to know) in these showings.
Don't even consider selling a horse unless you're 100 % sure about the AC, as your hasty conclusions might turn out to
be misguided.
A common rule, at least for this article writer, is that most G1's can compete at basically the same level after the AC as
before.
G2's, on the other hand, is a whole other ballgame.
A common knowledge about G2's is that both C's and D's can show incredibly high gains in some cases, and almost no gain at all
in others.
This article writer is no expert when it comes to G2's but can recall a D-horse getting... well... no gain at all between the
age of 2 and 3.
When that happens you will have to adjust your race strategy.
What could have been a top C or D before the AC now can be only good for claimers or, even worse, to join Seabiscuit in the
eternally green fields on the sky.
Main reason why this is mentioned is because the season is drawing to an end and claiming 2-3Y G2's this late, or early next
season, is a risky venture.
Don't be surprised if you find WCD-winners entered into an auction or a claimer next month, and if so you must ask for
advice from the seller and other experienced G2-stables to avoid ending up overpaying.
So until we can safely say whether the AC's have gone smoothly I don't dare to recommend any claims on either 2Y or 3Y G2's
during the start of next season.
I have contacted the "Godfather of G2's", Bigboysteve, to get his take on the issue at hand:
- I would expect a 12% plus age change but it all depends on what tts the horse was doing at age 2 or 3.
Horses need at least 3 cycles to show how the age change has affected them and depending on wins of the horse will depend on
how you run them.
Low wins and a bad age change you can sleep till age 4 and still pick up wins.
I personally like horses to have at least 13 to 15% to be very good for levels and WFA races.
But if anyone would like help of how good the horse is or advice they can inbox me.
Baby is now doing great and no more worries, says good old Steve.
So if you're a G1-owner don't worry all that much about the age change, if you're a G2-person... fingers crossed!
Good luck to you all in tonight's WCD-races and God speed in the sales ring.
Best regards, Micke."
the expectations that comes with a sales ring dip for the new season, it was a very exciting time of the year
for all owners that had anything raceable in these races.
G2 WCD-horses can be found in even the cheapest of claimers and with Raceclubs being generous enough to
schedule such races over all 9 distances and both sexes tonight we can hopefully look forward to
full fields and several instances, with maybe a couple of winners hailing from small stables.
A lot of trainers ask about the importance of age chances, and I therefore I decided to write a couple of
words about this for new members.
An AC can result in drastic changes for your horse, especially amongst the G2's who experience a broader
percentage difference than G1's.
If you don't know what an age change is then read the following closely.
Every 2Y and 3Y turning 3Y or 4Y improves in training upon the so called age change.
Some horses are left unscaven, others improve while some go from hit to shit.
Amongst the G1's the basic idea is to get a 12,5 % gain, so if your horse peaks at, for instance 10.00 at
age 2 it will have "survived" the AC if it at age 3 hits 11.25.
If it hits higher than 11.25 then it might just have gotten a very good AC.
You can sometime read on the forums about trainers suggesting that their horses have gotten massive AC's of
anything between 14-20 % - when it fact no G1's will ever get an AC of 20 %, it just doesn't happen.
Why certain trainers still think that their horse have gotten a great AC is because they hadn't pushed it
to the limit before the age change - resulting in comparing a possible peak TT at age 3 (or 4) with one that
wasn't up to standard season before.
If you want to be sure about what kind of AC your horse has gotten you need to train it to the maximum every season.
Not only 1 or 2 cycles, but flip it say 5-10 times on ideal conditions and on high fitness.
Then do the same after the age change, if you do not you will end up guessing the age change and as such can
misinterpret the effect, which could lead to you ending up entering your horse into the wrong races.
Some horses, both G1's and G2's, do get bad AC's, which is easy to see amongst the challenge horses in the game as if you
own a direct clone of horse X you will get exactly the same age changes as this horse did, which could be very important
for you to know when buying or selling a 2Y.
When push comes to shove G1's in general most get decent age changes, with percentages seldom creeping under 11,5 or even 12,0.
Many owners do jump to hasty and unfounded conclusions about the effect of the AC after only a couple of TT's or 1 full cycle,
thinking that the AC in fact is catastrophical - but your horse could just as well have had some bad randoms (yes, there are
bad randoms in training also... very important to know) in these showings.
Don't even consider selling a horse unless you're 100 % sure about the AC, as your hasty conclusions might turn out to
be misguided.
A common rule, at least for this article writer, is that most G1's can compete at basically the same level after the AC as
before.
G2's, on the other hand, is a whole other ballgame.
A common knowledge about G2's is that both C's and D's can show incredibly high gains in some cases, and almost no gain at all
in others.
This article writer is no expert when it comes to G2's but can recall a D-horse getting... well... no gain at all between the
age of 2 and 3.
When that happens you will have to adjust your race strategy.
What could have been a top C or D before the AC now can be only good for claimers or, even worse, to join Seabiscuit in the
eternally green fields on the sky.
Main reason why this is mentioned is because the season is drawing to an end and claiming 2-3Y G2's this late, or early next
season, is a risky venture.
Don't be surprised if you find WCD-winners entered into an auction or a claimer next month, and if so you must ask for
advice from the seller and other experienced G2-stables to avoid ending up overpaying.
So until we can safely say whether the AC's have gone smoothly I don't dare to recommend any claims on either 2Y or 3Y G2's
during the start of next season.
I have contacted the "Godfather of G2's", Bigboysteve, to get his take on the issue at hand:
- I would expect a 12% plus age change but it all depends on what tts the horse was doing at age 2 or 3.
Horses need at least 3 cycles to show how the age change has affected them and depending on wins of the horse will depend on
how you run them.
Low wins and a bad age change you can sleep till age 4 and still pick up wins.
I personally like horses to have at least 13 to 15% to be very good for levels and WFA races.
But if anyone would like help of how good the horse is or advice they can inbox me.
Baby is now doing great and no more worries, says good old Steve.
So if you're a G1-owner don't worry all that much about the age change, if you're a G2-person... fingers crossed!
Good luck to you all in tonight's WCD-races and God speed in the sales ring.
Best regards, Micke."